A scenario-based approach is used to explore road transport electrification and its impact, based on the latest market data, policy drivers and technology perspectives. Two IEA scenarios – the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios – inform the outlooks, which are examined in relation t Contact online >>
A scenario-based approach is used to explore road transport electrification and its impact, based on the latest market data, policy drivers and technology perspectives. Two IEA scenarios – the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios – inform the outlooks, which are examined in relation to the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario at the global level.1 These scenarios are based on announced policies, ambitions and market trends through the first quarter of 2023.
The purpose of the scenarios is to assess plausible futures for global EV markets and the implications they could have. The scenarios do not make predictions about the future. Rather, they aim to provide insights to inform decision-making by governments, companies and stakeholders about the future of EVs.
The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) reflects existing policies and measures, as well as firm policy ambitions and objectives that have been legislated by governments around the world. It includes current EV-related policies, regulations and investments, as well as market trends based on the expected impacts of technology developments, announced deployments and plans from industry stakeholders. The STEPS aims to hold up a mirror to the plans of policy makers and illustrate their consequences.
The difference between the APS and the STEPS represents the "implementation gap" that exists between the policy frameworks and measures required to achieve country ambitions and targets, and the policies and measures that have been legislated.
The total fleet of EVs (excluding two/three-wheelers) grows from almost 30million in 2022 to about 240million in 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), achieving an average annual growth rate of about 30%. In this scenario, EVs account for over 10% of the road vehicle fleet by 2030. Total EV sales reach over 20million in 2025 and over 40million in 2030, representing over 20% and 30% of all vehicle sales, respectively.
In the Announced Pledged Scenario (APS), based on announced government targets and pledges that go beyond existing policies, the global EV fleet reaches almost 250million in 2030, around 5% higher than in the STEPS. The average annual growth rate in the APS is nearly 35%, with the result that one in seven vehicles on the road is an EV in 2030. Total EV sales reach 45million in 2030, representing over 35% of all vehicle sales.
The global EV sales share in 2030 in the STEPS is about half that in the NZE Scenario, in which the fleet of EVs grows more rapidly, at an average annual rate of around 40%, reaching 380million EVs on the road in 2030. Electric vehicle sales reach over 30million in 2025 and over 70million in 2030, a total of approximately 30% and 60% of all vehicle sales, respectively.
In the APS, the fleet of electric LDVs reaches over 240million in 2030, a 15% stock share. Of these, 230million are electric PLDVs, with only 6% being LCVs. Sales of electric LDVs reach almost 45million in 2030 in the APS, representing a sales share of 40%. These results reflect government electrification ambitions and net zero pledges, including the 2021 COP26 declaration target to achieve 100% zero-emission LDV sales by 2040, and by 2035 in leading markets, which 40 national governments have committed to.
In the APS, the electric bus fleet exceeds 3million in 2030, reaching a stock share of over 10%. In 2030, about a quarter of buses sold are electric, which is about 35% higher than the sales share in the STEPS. In part, this increase is due to the proposed EU heavy-duty vehicle CO2 standards, which would require 100% zero-emission city bus sales from 2030. In the NZE Scenario, the electrification of buses is even more rapid, with one in two buses sold in 2030 being electric.
In the NZE Scenario, electric trucks reach 30% of sales in 2030, which is aligned with the Global MoU on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty vehicles. However, this sales share is still two-and-a-half times that in the APS, and over three times that in the STEPS.
Two/three-wheelers are currently the most electrified road transport segment. Given the vehicles'' light weight and limited daily driving distance, battery electrification is relatively easy and makes economic sense on a total cost of ownership basis in many regions. In 2022, the electric two/three-wheeler fleet totalled over 50million, reaching a stock share of around 7%.
In the STEPS, the fleet of electric two/three-wheelers reaches 220million in 2030, or a quarter of the total two/three-wheeler fleet. In the APS, the stock grows to 280million, and almost 30% of all two/three-wheelers are electric. The electric sales share in 2030 reaches 50% in the STEPS and 60% in the APS. In the NZE Scenario, the electric two/three-wheeler sales share reaches almost 80% in 2030.
Realising the potential of EVs to support government climate (as well as energy security) ambitions is thus almost in reach under current policy frameworks. In particular, the gap between policy and ambition has closed in three of the largest EV markets: the European Union, the UnitedStates and China. At the global level, oil displacement by EVs reaches 1.8million barrels per day in 2025 (over 5mb/d in 2030) under stated policies. As a result, global demand for oil-based road transport fuels will peak by 2025.
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